Queensland Galaxy 51-49 to Labor, but Palaszczuk's ratings slump
Sunday, Aug 6, 2017, 05:11 AM | Source: The Conversation
By Adrian Beaumont
Queensland Galaxy 51-49 to Labor, but Palaszczuk's ratings slumpAdrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne
A Queensland Galaxy poll, conducted 2-3 August from a sample of 900, has Labor ahead by 51-49, a one point gain for the Liberal National Party since late April. Primary votes are 36% LNP (up 2), 35% Labor (down 1) and 15% One Nation (down 2). No figure is given for the Greens. The next Queensland election must be held by early 2018.
While voting intentions are relatively stable, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's approval rating slumped eight points to 39%, and her disapproval rose nine points to 44%, for a net approval of -5, down 17 points. This is Palaszczuk's first negative net approval. Opposition leader Tim Nicholls had a net approval of -14, up four points.
A key assumption in this poll is that One Nation preferences will split evenly between the major parties, as they did at the 2016 Federal election. However, if One Nation preferences are better for the LNP, Labor could be in trouble.
The April Galaxy poll was taken shortly after Cyclone Debbie, and that event may have given Labor and Palaszczuk a boost that has now diminished.
I would like to see a pollster ask whether Queenslanders support or oppose their government's approval of the Adani coal mine. In my opinion, this approval is bad political strategy for Labor, as it angers environmentally progressive voters. Those who want the coal mine to proceed are likely to be sceptical of Labor, so it will not win over many new voters.
Nationally, Turnbull's moves to the centre on Gonski have not won the Coalition many new voters since people trust Labor more on education. Similarly, Queensland Labor's embrace of Adani has not benefited them as people who put economic development ahead of environmental concerns trust the LNP more.
I think Labor would now be doing better had Palaszczuk rejected Adani at the start of her term. This would have pleased progressives, and the mine would probably have faded as an issue.
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