Piers Howe

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann, Amanda A Rotella, Cendri Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael EW Varnum, Sebastian K Achter, Mandeep Dhami, Xinqi Evie Guo, Mane R Kara-Yakoubian, David Mandel, Louis Raes, Louis Tay, Aymeric Vie, Lisa Wagner, Matus Adamkovic, Arash Arami, Patricia Arriaga, Kasun Bandara, Gabriel Banik, Frantisek Bartos, et al.

Journal article  |  2023  |  NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, ..

Directive Explanations for Actionable Explainability in Machine Learning Applications

Ronal Singh, Tim Miller, Henrietta Lyons, Liz Sonenberg, Eduardo Velloso, Frank Vetere, Piers Howe, Paul Dourish

Journal article  |  2023  |  ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems

In this paper, we show that explanations of decisions made by machine learning systems can be improved by not only explaining ..

Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions

Piers Douglas Lionel Howe, Andrew Perfors, Bradley Walker, Yoshihisa Kashima, Nicolas Fay

Journal article  |  2022  |  JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in ..

The P-Word: Power aversion and responsibility aversion as explanations for the avoidance of power

Kathryn E Hull, Jennifer R Overbeck, Luke D Smillie, Piers DL Howe

Journal article  |  2022  |  JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

Though we typically think that power is desirable, individuals will sometimes avoid power. One explanation for this behavior is so..

Impression formation stimuli: A corpus of behavior statements rated on morality, competence, informativeness, and believability

Amy Mickelberg, Bradley Walker, Ullrich KH Ecker, Piers Howe, Andrew Perfors, Nicolas Fay

Journal article  |  2022  |  PLOS ONE

To investigate impression formation, researchers tend to rely on statements that describe a person's behavior (e.g., "Alex ridicul..

Explainable models for forecasting the emergence of political instability

Emma Baillie, Piers DL Howe, Andrew Perfors, Tim Miller, Yoshihisa Kashima, Andreas Beger

Journal article  |  2021  |  PLOS ONE

Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability ..

Characterizing the Time Course of Decision-Making in Change Detection

Anthea G Blunden, Dylan A Hammond, Piers DL Howe, Daniel R Little

Journal article  |  2021  |  PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW

We propose a novel modeling framework for characterizing the time course of change detection based on information held in visual s..

A hierarchy of mindreading strategies in joint action participation

Todd Larson Landes, Piers Douglas Howe, Yoshihisa Kashima

Journal article  |  2021  |  JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING

This paper introduces the Hierarchical Mindreading Model (HMM), a new model of mindreading in two-person, mixed-motive games such ..

Attribute Amnesia in the Auditory Domain

Piers Douglas Lionel Howe, Serene Bee Wen Lee

Journal article  |  2021  |  PERCEPTION

Individuals are often unable to report an attribute of an object to which they recently attended, if they expected to report a dif..

Hidden Experts in the Crowd: Using Meta-Predictions to Leverage Expertise in Single-Question Prediction Problems

Tom Wilkening, Marcellin Martinie, Piers DL Howe

Journal article  |  2021  |  MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Modern forecasting algorithms use the wisdom of crowds to produce forecasts better than those of the best identifiable expert. How..