Anca Hanea

Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

James S Camac, Kate DL Umbers, John W Morgan, Sonya R Geange, Anca Hanea, Rachel A Slatyer, Keith L McDougall, Susanna E Venn, Peter A Vesk, Ary A Hoffmann, Adrienne B Nicotra

Journal article  |  2021  |  GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiver..

Balancing the Elicitation Burden and the Richness of Expert Input When Quantifying Discrete Bayesian Networks

Martine J Barons, Steven Mascaro, Anca M Hanea

Journal article  |  2021  |  RISK ANALYSIS

Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a method for obtaining estimates of uncertain quantities from groups of experts in a structure..

Improving the Computation of Brier Scores for Evaluating Expert-Elicited Judgements

Gayan Dharmarathne, Anca Hanea, Andrew P Robinson

Journal article  |  2021  |  FRONTIERS IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS

Structured expert judgement (SEJ) is a suite of techniques used to elicit expert predictions, e.g. probability predictions of the ..

What is a Good Calibration Question?

Victoria Hemming, Anca M Hanea, Mark A Burgman

Journal article  |  2021  |  RISK ANALYSIS

Weighted aggregation of expert judgments based on their performance on calibration questions may improve mathematically aggregated..

Uncertainty Quantification with Experts: Present Status and Research Needs

Anca M Hanea, Victoria Hemming, Gabriela F Nane

Journal article  |  2021  |  RISK ANALYSIS

Expert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert e..

Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures.

AM Hanea, DP Wilkinson, M McBride, A Lyon, D van Ravenzwaaij, F Singleton Thorn, C Gray, DR Mandel, A Willcox, E Gould, ET Smith, F Mody, M Bush, F Fidler, H Fraser, BC Wintle

Journal article  |  2021  |  PLoS One

Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multip..

An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model

AM Hanea, GF Nane

Book Chapter  |  2021  |  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science

The Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method for performing Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is the best-known method that promotes..

Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement

S French, AM Hanea, T Bedford, GF Nane

Book Chapter  |  2021  |  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science

This chapter sets the background for when, and discusses the contexts in which, eliciting expert judgements is paramount. The way ..

Building on Foundations: An Interview with Roger Cooke

GF Nane, AM Hanea

Book Chapter  |  2021  |  International Series in Operations Research and Management Science

Prof. Roger Cooke is the Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow at Resources for Future in Washington and an emeritus professor at the Techn..

What is an optimal value of k in k-fold cross-validation in discrete Bayesian network analysis?

Bruce G Marcot, Anca M Hanea

Journal article  |  2020  |  COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS

Cross-validation using randomized subsets of data—known as k-fold cross-validation—is a powerful means of testing the success rate..