Joshua Miller

Tra i Leoni: Revealing the preferences behind a superstition

Giovanna M Invernizzi, Joshua Miller, Tommaso Coen, Martin Dufwenberg, Luiz Edgard R Oliveira

Journal article  |  2021  |  Journal of Economic Psychology

We examine a superstition for which adherence is nearly universal among its target population. Using a combination of field interv..

The big nudge: here’s how the government could spread its coronavirus tracing app far, fast and wide

David Byrne, Joshua Miller, Richard Holden

Scholarly Contribution to Database/Website  |  2020

The government’s tracing app, COVIDSafe, is off to a flying start, with over 1 million downloads within hours of launch. But what ..

Laplace's Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Biases

Joshua Miller, Andrew Gelman

Journal article  |  2020  |  Statistical Science

In his book from the early 1800s, Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilités, the mathematician Pierre-Simon de Laplace anticipated ..

A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice

Joshua B Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Journal article  |  2019  |  Journal of Economic Perspectives

We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the recently discov..

Penney's Game Odds From No-Arbitrage

Joshua Miller

Report  |  2019

Penney's game is a two player zero-sum game in which each player chooses a three-flip pattern of heads and tails and the winner is..

How Experience Confirms the Gambler's Fallacy when Sample Size is Neglected

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2019

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that random sequences have a systematic tendency towards reversal, i.e. that streaks ..

Tra i Leoni: Revealing the Preferences Behind a Superstition

Joshua Miller, Giovanna Invernizzi, Tommaso Coen, Martin Dufwenberg, Luiz Edgard R Oliveira

Report  |  2019

We investigate a superstition for which adherence is nearly universal. Using a combination of field interventions that involve uns..

Subjective beliefs and confidence when facts are forgotten

Igor Kopylov, Joshua Miller

Journal article  |  2018  |  Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

Forgetting can be a salient source of uncertainty for subjective beliefs, confidence, and ambiguity attitudes. To investigate this..

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2018

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics..

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Joshua B Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Journal article  |  2018  |  Econometrica

We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streak..