Joshua Miller

Laplace's Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Biases

Joshua Miller, Andrew Gelman

Journal article  |  2020  |  Statistical Science

In his book from the early 1800s, Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilités, the mathematician Pierre-Simon de Laplace anticipated ..

A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice

Joshua B Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Journal article  |  2019  |  Journal of Economic Perspectives

We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the recently discov..

Penney's Game Odds From No-Arbitrage

Joshua Miller

Report  |  2019

Penney's game is a two player zero-sum game in which each player chooses a three-flip pattern of heads and tails and the winner is..

How Experience Confirms the Gambler's Fallacy when Sample Size is Neglected

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2019

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that random sequences have a systematic tendency towards reversal, i.e. that streaks ..

Tra i Leoni: Revealing the Preferences Behind a Superstition

Joshua Miller, Giovanna Invernizzi, Tommaso Coen, Martin Dufwenberg, Luiz Edgard R Oliveira

Report  |  2019

We investigate a superstition for which adherence is nearly universal. Using a combination of field interventions that involve uns..

Subjective beliefs and confidence when facts are forgotten

Igor Kopylov, Joshua Miller

Journal article  |  2018  |  Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

Forgetting can be a salient source of uncertainty for subjective beliefs, confidence, and ambiguity attitudes. To investigate this..

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Joshua B Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Journal article  |  2018  |  Econometrica

We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streak..

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2018

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics..

Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2018

The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics..

A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Report  |  2018

Since its inception, the hot hand fallacy literature has tended to focus on whether the hot hand exists, rather than the fitness o..

Social Risk and the Dimensionality of Intentions

Jeffrey V Butler, Joshua B Miller

Journal article  |  2018  |  Management Science

Previous research has documented a behavioral distinction between “social risk,” or risk caused by human factors, and natural risk..

Momentum isn’t magic – vindicating the hot hand with the mathematics of streaks

Joshua Miller, Adam Sanjurjo

Scholarly Contribution to Database/Website  |  2017

It’s NCAA basketball tournament season, known for its magical moments and the “March Madness” it can produce. Many fans remember S..

Why Blame?

Mehmet Y Gurdal, Joshua B Miller, Aldo Rustichini

Journal article  |  2013  |  Journal of Political Economy

The Weight of Personal Experience: an Experimental Measurement

Joshua Miller, Zacharias Maniadis

Report  |  2012

We present an experiment to address the question of whether a piece of information is more influential if it comes from experience,..