Kasun Bandara

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Igor Grossmann, Amanda A Rotella, Cendri Hutcherson, Konstantyn Sharpinskyi, Michael EW Varnum, Sebastian K Achter, Mandeep Dhami, Xinqi Evie Guo, Mane R Kara-Yakoubian, David Mandel, Louis Raes, Louis Tay, Aymeric Vie, Lisa Wagner, Matus Adamkovic, Arash Arami, Patricia Arriaga, Kasun Bandara, Gabriel Banik, Frantisek Bartos, et al.

Journal article  |  2023  |  NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, ..

A fast and scalable ensemble of global models with long memory and data partitioning for the M5 forecasting competition

Kasun Bandara, Hansika Hewamalage, Rakshitha Godahewa, Puwasala Gamakumara

Journal article  |  2022  |  INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

This work presents key insights on the model development strategies used in our cross-learning-based retail demand forecast framew..

A Gas Diffusion Analysis Method for Simulating Surface Nitrous Oxide Emissions in Soil Gas Concentrations Measurement

KMTS Bandara, Kazuhito Sakai, Tamotsu Nakandakari, Kozue Yuge

Journal article  |  2022  |  AGRICULTURE-BASEL

The detection of low gas concentrations from the soil surface demands expensive high-precision devices to estimate nitrous oxide (..

Multi-resolution, multi-horizon distributed solar PV power forecasting with forecast combinations

Maneesha Perera, Julian De Hoog, Kasun Bandara, Saman Halgamuge

Journal article  |  2022  |  EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

Distributed, small-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are being installed at a rapidly increasing rate. This can cause major im..

Can machine learning improve small area population forecasts? A forecast combination approach

Irina Grossman, Kasun Bandara, Tom Wilson, Michael Kirley

Journal article  |  2022  |  COMPUTERS ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SYSTEMS

Generating accurate small area population forecasts is vital for governments and businesses as it provides better grounds for deci..

Global models for time series forecasting: A Simulation study

Hansika Hewamalage, Christoph Bergmeir, Kasun Bandara

Journal article  |  2022  |  PATTERN RECOGNITION

The recent advances in Big Data have opened up the opportunity to develop competitive Global Forecasting Models (GFM) that simulta..

Study of Planetary Boundary Layer, Air Pollution, Air Quality Models and Aerosol Transport Using Ceilometers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia

Nguyen Duc Hiep, Md Mahmudur Rahman, Toan Trieu, Merched Azzi, Matthew Riley, Thomas Koh, Shaohua Liu, Kasun Bandara, Vishall Krishnan, Yujing Yang, Jeremy Silver, Michael Kirley, Stephen White, Jordan Capnerhurst, John Kirkwood

Journal article  |  2022  |  ATMOSPHERE

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is one of the key factors in influencing the dispersion of the air pollutants in the tr..

MSTL: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Algorithm for Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Patterns

Kasun Bandara, Rob Hyndman, Christoph Bergmeir

Journal article  |  2022  |  International Journal of Operational Research

The Importance of Environmental Factors in Forecasting Australian Power Demand

Ali Eshragh, Benjamin Ganim, Terry Perkins, Kasun Bandara

Journal article  |  2021  |  ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT

We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly timescale, and..

Ensembles of localised models for time series forecasting

Rakshitha Godahewa, Kasun Bandara, Geoffrey Webb, Slawek Smyl, Christoph Bergmeir

Journal article  |  2021  |  KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known ..