CENTRE OF RESEARCH EXCELLENCE IN INFECTIOUS DISEASES MODELLING TO INFORM PUBLIC HEALTH POLICY

Enhanced viral infectivity and reduced interferon production are associated with high pathogenicity for influenza viruses.

Ke Li, James M McCaw, Pengxing Cao

2023-02-01

Epidemiological and clinical evidence indicates that humans infected with the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and highly pathog..

Development of an influenza pandemic decision support tool linking situational analytics to national response policy.

Freya M Shearer, Robert Moss, David J Price, Alexander E Zarebski, Peter G Ballard, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross, James M McCaw

2021-06-19

National influenza pandemic plans have evolved substantially over recent decades, as has the scientific research that underpins th..

Modelling the Effect of MUC1 on Influenza Virus Infection Kinetics and Macrophage Dynamics

Ke Li, Pengxing Cao, James M McCaw

2021-05-01

MUC1 belongs to the family of cell surface (cs-) mucins. Experimental evidence indicates that its presence reduces in vivo influen..

Modelling within-host macrophage dynamics in influenza virus infection

Ke Li, James M McCaw, Pengxing Cao

2021-01-07

Human respiratory disease associated with influenza virus infection is of significant public health concern. Macrophages, as part ..

Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data

Michael J Lydeamore, Patricia T Campbell, David J Price, Yue Wu, Adrian J Marcato, Will Cuningham, Jonathan R Carapetis, Ross M Andrews, Malcolm McDonald, Jodie McVernon, Steven YC Tong, James M McCaw

2020-10-01

Prevalence of impetigo (skin sores) remains high in remote Australian Aboriginal communities, Fiji, and other areas of socio-econo..

Infectious disease pandemic planning and response: Incorporating decision analysis

Freya M Shearer, Robert Moss, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V Ross, James M McCaw

2020-01-01

Freya Shearer and co-authors discuss the use of decision analysis in planning for infectious disease pandemics.

A biological model of scabies infection dynamics and treatment informs mass drug administration strategies to increase the likelihood of elimination

MJ Lydeamore, PT Campbell, DG Regan, SYC Tong, RM Andrews, AC Steer, L Romani, JM Kaldor, J McVernon, JM McCaw

2019-03-01

Infections with Sarcoptes scabiei, or scabies, remain common in many disadvantaged populations. Mass drug administration (MDA) has..

Accounting for Healthcare-Seeking Behaviours and Testing Practices in Real-Time Influenza Forecasts

R Moss, Alexander E Zarebski, Sandra J Carlson, James M McCaw

2019-01-11

For diseases such as influenza, where the majority of infected persons experience mild (if any) symptoms, surveillance systems are..

Investigating the Efficacy of Triple Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapies for Treating Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Patients Using Mathematical Modeling

Saber Dini, Sophie Zaloumis, Pengxing Cao, Ric N Price, Freya J Fowkes, E Rob W van der Pluijm, James M McCaw, Julie A Simpson

2018-11-01

The first line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria is artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), which consists of an..

The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities

Ada WC Yan, Andrew J Black, James M McCaw, Nicolas Rebuli, Joshua Ross, Annalisa J Swan, Roslyn Hickson

2018-09-01

Assessing the risk of disease spread between communities is important in our highly connected modern world. However, the impact of..

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia

MJ Lydeamore, PT Campbell, W Cuningham, RM Andrews, T Kearns, D Clucas, R Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay, J Carapetis, SYC Tong, JM McCaw, J McVernon

2018-07-01

Prevalence of skin sores and scabies in remote Australian Aboriginal communities remains unacceptably high, with Group A Streptoco..

Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

Tiffany Leung, Patricia T Campbell, Barry D Hughes, Federico Frascoli, James M McCaw

2018-01-01

In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of im..

A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum

Pengxing Cao, Nectarios Klonis, Sophie Zaloumis, Con Dogovski, Stanley C Xie, Sompob Saralamba, Lisa J White, Freya JI Fowkes, Leann Tilley, Julie A Simpson, James M McCaw

2017-12-01

Artemisinin resistance constitutes a major threat to the continued success of control programs for malaria, particularly in light ..

A mechanistic model quantifies artemisinin-induced parasite growth retardation in blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum infection

Pengxing Cao, Nectarios Klonis, Sophie Zaloumis, David S Khoury, Deborah Cromer, Miles P Davenport, Leann Tilley, Julie A Simpson, James M McCaw

2017-10-07

Falciparum malaria is a major parasitic disease causing widespread morbidity and mortality globally. Artemisinin derivatives-the m..

Vaccine efficacy against Indonesian Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1: systematic review and meta-analysis

Juan P Villanueva-Cabezas, Mauricio JC Coppo, Peter A Durr, Jodie McVernon

2017-09-05

Indonesia has implemented multiple strategies to control Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI/H5N1), including the licensu..

The Mechanisms for Within-Host Influenza Virus Control Affect Model-Based Assessment and Prediction of Antiviral Treatment

Pengxing Cao, James M McCaw

2017-08-01

Models of within-host influenza viral dynamics have contributed to an improved understanding of viral dynamics and antiviral effec..

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

Ada WC Yan, Pengxing Cao, Jane M Heffernan, Jodie McVernon, Kylie M Quinn, Nicole L La Gruta, Karen L Laurie, James M McCaw

2017-01-21

The cellular adaptive immune response plays a key role in resolving influenza infection. Experiments where individuals are success..

On the Role of CD8( ) T Cells in Determining Recovery Time from Influenza Virus Infection

Pengxing Cao, Zhongfang Wang, Ada WC Yan, Jodie McVernon, Jianqing Xu, Jane M Heffernan, Katherine Kedzierska, James M McCaw

2016-12-20

Myriad experiments have identified an important role for CD8+ T cell response mechanisms in determining recovery from influenza A ..

Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity

Tiffany Leung, Barry D Hughes, Federico Frascoli, James M McCaw

2016-12-07

Incidence of whooping cough, an infection caused by Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis, has been on the rise since ..

Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program

Patricia Therese Campbell, Jodie McVernon, Peter McIntyre, Nicholas Geard

2016-12-01

BACKGROUND:  Antenatal pertussis vaccination is being considered as a means to reduce the burden of infant pertussis in low- and m..

High Conservation Level of CD8( ) T Cell Immunogenic Regions Within an Unusual H1N2 Human Influenza Variant

Naomi Komadina, Sergio M Quinones-Parra, Katherine Kedzierska, James M McCaw, Anne Kelso, Karin Leder, Jodie McVernon

2016-10-01

Current seasonal influenza vaccines require regular updates due to antigenic drift causing loss of effectiveness and therefore pro..

On the extinction probability in models of within-host infection: the role of latency and immunity

Ada WC Yan, Pengxing Cao, James M McCaw

2016-10-01

Not every exposure to virus establishes infection in the host; instead, the small amount of initial virus could become extinct due..

On the efficient determination of optimal Bayesian experimental designs using ABC: A case study in optimal observation of epidemics

David J Price, Nigel G Bean, Joshua V Ross, Jonathan Tuke

2016-05-01

We present a new method for determining optimal Bayesian experimental designs, which we refer to as ABCdE. ABCdE uses Approximate ..