Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia

Warming Patterns Affect El Nino Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Mandy B Freund, Josephine R Brown, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Jaclyn N Brown

2020-10-01

Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the rep..

The role of climate variability in Australian drought

Andrew D King, Andy J Pitman, Benjamin J Henley, Anna M Ukkola, Josephine R Brown

2020-02-24

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to ..

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Benjamin J Henley, Josephine R Brown

2020-01-01

under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between spec..

Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia

Benjamin J Henley, Murray C Peel, Rory Nathan, Andrew David King, Anna M Ukkola, David J Karoly, Kim S Tan

2019-08-02

Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Mandy B Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Helen V McGregor, Nerilie J Abram, Dietmar Dommenget

2019-06-01

El Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surf..

Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C

Andrew D King, Markus G Donat, Sophie C Lewis, Benjamin J Henley, Daniel M Mitchell, Peter A Stott, Erich M Fischer, David J Karoly

2018-07-01

The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population e..

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Mandy Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Kathryn J Allen, Patrick J Baker

2017-11-30

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit th..

Time-varying spectral characteristics of ENSO over the Last Millennium

Pandora Hope, Benjamin J Henley, Joelle Gergis, Josephine Brown, Hua Ye

2017-09-01

The characteristics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spectra over the Last Millennium are examined to characterise variabili..

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming

Andrew D King, David J Karoly, Benjamin J Henley

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. How..

Trajectories toward the 1.5 degrees C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Benjamin J Henley, Andrew D King

2017-05-16

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic ..

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Benjamin J Henley, Gerald Meehl, Scott B Power, Chris K Folland, Andrew D King, Jaclyn N Brown, David J Karoly, Francois Delage, Ailie JE Gallant, Mandy Freund, Raphael Neukom

2017-04-01

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, be..