Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia
Grant number: LP150100062 | Funding period: 2016 - 2020
This interdisciplinary project plans to assemble a world-class team of hydrologists, climate scientists and water managers to investigate the history and future risk of decadal to multidecadal droughts (megadroughts). Despite Australia’s vulnerability to water scarcity, the likelihood of persistent megadroughts has not been assessed in Australia. This has resulted in inadequate capacity to prepare for and adapt to megadrought under future climate change. For the first time, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate change projections will be used to constrain future hydroclimatic variability, advancing the decision-making capacity of Australian water resource managers.
Related publications (12)
Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia
Nerilie J Abram, Benjamin J Henley, Alex Sen Gupta, Tanya JR Lippmann, Hamish Clarke, Andrew J Dowdy, Jason J Sharples, Rachael H Nolan, Tianran Zhang, Martin J Wooster, Jennifer B Wurtzel, Katrin J Meissner, Andrew J Pitman, Anna M Ukkola, Brett P Murphy, Nigel J Tapper, Matthias M Boer
The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radia..
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia
Benjamin J Henley, Murray C Peel, Rory Nathan, Andrew David King, Anna M Ukkola, David J Karoly, Kim S Tan
Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..
Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries
Mandy B Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Helen V McGregor, Nerilie J Abram, Dietmar Dommenget
El Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surf..
Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C
Andrew D King, Markus G Donat, Sophie C Lewis, Benjamin J Henley, Daniel M Mitchell, Peter A Stott, Erich M Fischer, David J Karoly
The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population e..
Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions
Mandy Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Kathryn J Allen, Patrick J Baker
Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit th..
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Benjamin J Henley, Gerald Meehl, Scott B Power, Chris K Folland, Andrew D King, Jaclyn N Brown, David J Karoly, Francois Delage, Ailie JE Gallant, Mandy Freund, Raphael Neukom
Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, be..