Megadrought likelihood and its water resource impacts in Australia

Grant number: LP150100062 | Funding period: 2016 - 2020

Completed

Abstract

This interdisciplinary project plans to assemble a world-class team of hydrologists, climate scientists and water managers to investigate the history and future risk of decadal to multidecadal droughts (megadroughts). Despite Australia’s vulnerability to water scarcity, the likelihood of persistent megadroughts has not been assessed in Australia. This has resulted in inadequate capacity to prepare for and adapt to megadrought under future climate change. For the first time, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate change projections will be used to constrain future hydroclimatic variability, advancing the decision-making capacity of Australian water resource managers.

Related publications (12)

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Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

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The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radia..

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Warming Patterns Affect El Nino Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

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2020-10-01

Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the rep..

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The role of climate variability in Australian drought

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2020-02-24

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to ..

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Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

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under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between spec..

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Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia

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Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..

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Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries

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Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C

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The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population e..

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Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Mandy Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Kathryn J Allen, Patrick J Baker

2017-11-30

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit th..

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Time-varying spectral characteristics of ENSO over the Last Millennium

Pandora Hope, Benjamin J Henley, Joelle Gergis, Josephine Brown, Hua Ye

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The characteristics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spectra over the Last Millennium are examined to characterise variabili..

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Australian climate extremes at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global warming

Andrew D King, David J Karoly, Benjamin J Henley

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To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. How..

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Trajectories toward the 1.5 degrees C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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2017-05-16

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic ..

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Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, be..