Using Species Distribution Models To Make Robust Conservation Decisions

Abstract

Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution models in conservation decision-making by integrating ecological and statistical thinking with decision theory. It seeks to describe how to explore the sources of uncertainty and their impact, develop approaches to reducing uncertainty, and evaluate the effects of uncertainty..