PREDICTING ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES IN A PERIOD OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Grant number: DP160100738 | Funding period: 2016 - 2020

Completed

Abstract

This project has the potential to reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of extreme winds and waves used to design and operate coastal and offshore facilities. Predictions are typically achieved by extrapolating recorded data to predict probable extremes. The uncertainties associated with this approach are very large. This project aims to develop a new approach called ‘large ensemble aggregate’ analysis, which brings together data from alternative model predictions or alternative measurement locations to expand the effective data and avoid the necessity for statistical extrapolation. This approach may significantly reduce the uncertainty in estimating extreme values. This would reduce the..

View full description

Related publications (13)

Scholarly works icon

Global-scale analysis of socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding over the 21(st) century

Ebru Kirezci, Ian R Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel

2023-01-16

Building on a global database of projected extreme coastal flooding over the coming century, an extensive analysis that accounts f..

Scholarly works icon

Carbon pricing of international transport fuels: Impacts on carbon emissions and trade activity

Gabriela Mundaca, Jon Strand, Ian R Young

2021-10-26

We study the impacts of carbon taxation of international transport fuels on CO2 emissions and trade activity, focusing on maritime..

Scholarly works icon

Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century

Ebru Kirezci, Ian R Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sanne Muis, Robert J Nicholls, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel

2020-07-30

Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming cen..

Scholarly works icon

Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events

Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Mark Hemer, Ebru Kirezci, Roshanka Ranasinghe

2020-06-10

We describe an innovative approach to estimate global changes in extreme wave conditions by 2100, as a result of projected climate..

Scholarly works icon

Global calibration and error estimation of altimeter, scatterometer, and radiometerwind speed using triple collocation

A Ribal, IR Young

2020-06-01

The accuracy of wind speed measurements is important in many applications. In the present work, error standard deviations of wind ..

Scholarly works icon

Calibration and Cross Validation of Global Ocean Wind Speed Based on Scatterometer Observations

Agustinus Ribal, Ian R Young

2020-02-13

Global ocean wind speed observed from seven different scatterometers, namely, ERS-1, ERS-2, QuikSCAT, MetOp-A, OceanSat-2, MetOp-B..

Scholarly works icon

Global Ocean Extreme Wave Heights from Spatial Ensemble Data

Alicia Takbash, Ian R Young

2019-10-01

A novel approach to estimation of extreme value ocean significant wave height is investigated, in which data from adjacent regions..

Scholarly works icon

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Joao Morim, Mark Hemer, Xiaolan L Wang, Nick Cartwright, Claire Trenham, Alvaro Semedos, Ian Young, Lucy Bricheno, Paula Camus, Merce Casas-Prat, Li Erikson, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Ben Timmermans, Ole Aarnes, Oyvind Breivik, Arno Behrens, Mikhail Dobrynin, Melisa Menendez

2019-09-01

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal clima..

Scholarly works icon

33 years of globally calibrated wave height and wind speed data based on altimeter observations

Agustinus Ribal, Ian R Young

2019-05-29

This dataset consists of 33 years (1985 to 2018), of global significant wave height and wind speed obtained from 13 altimeters, na..

Scholarly works icon

Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height

Ian R Young, Agustinus Ribal

2019-05-10

In this study, global satellite data were analyzed to determine trends in oceanic wind speed and significant wave height over the ..

Scholarly works icon

Global Wind Speed and Wave Height Extremes Derived from Long-Duration Satellite Records

Alicia Takbash, Ian R Young, Oyvind Breivik

2019-01-01

The application of extreme-value analysis to long-duration (30 year) global altimeter and radiometer datasets is considered. In co..

Scholarly works icon

Wind and Wave Extremes from Atmosphere and Wave Model Ensembles

Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Oyvind Breivik

2018-11-01

The present work develops an innovative approach to wind speed and significant wave height extreme value analysis. The approach is..

Scholarly works icon

On the determination of global ocean wind and wave climate from satellite observations

IR Young, MA Donelan

2018-09-15

Three extensive global wind speed and wave height datasets (altimeter, radiometer, model reanalysis) are analysed to investigate t..