PREDICTING ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES IN A PERIOD OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Grant number: DP160100738 | Funding period: 2016 - 2020

Completed

Abstract

This project has the potential to reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of extreme winds and waves used to design and operate coastal and offshore facilities. Predictions are typically achieved by extrapolating recorded data to predict probable extremes. The uncertainties associated with this approach are very large. This project aims to develop a new approach called ‘large ensemble aggregate’ analysis, which brings together data from alternative model predictions or alternative measurement locations to expand the effective data and avoid the necessity for statistical extrapolation. This approach may significantly reduce the uncertainty in estimating extreme values. This would reduce the..

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Related publications (10)

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Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century

Ebru Kirezci, Ian R Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sanne Muis, Robert J Nicholls, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel

2020-07-30

Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming cen..

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Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events

Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Mark Hemer, Ebru Kirezci, Roshanka Ranasinghe

2020-06-10

We describe an innovative approach to estimate global changes in extreme wave conditions by 2100, as a result of projected climate..

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Calibration and Cross Validation of Global Ocean Wind Speed Based on Scatterometer Observations

Agustinus Ribal, Ian R Young

2020-02-13

Global ocean wind speed observed from seven different scatterometers, namely, ERS-1, ERS-2, QuikSCAT, MetOp-A, OceanSat-2, MetOp-B..

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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Joao Morim, Mark Hemer, Xiaolan L Wang, Nick Cartwright, Claire Trenham, Alvaro Semedos, Ian Young, Lucy Bricheno, Paula Camus, Merce Casas-Prat, Li Erikson, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Ben Timmermans, Ole Aarnes, Oyvind Breivik, Arno Behrens, Mikhail Dobrynin, Melisa Menendez

2019-09-01

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal clima..

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33 years of globally calibrated wave height and wind speed data based on altimeter observations

Agustinus Ribal, Ian R Young

2019-05-29

This dataset consists of 33 years (1985 to 2018), of global significant wave height and wind speed obtained from 13 altimeters, na..

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Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height

Ian R Young, Agustinus Ribal

2019-05-10

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Global Ocean Extreme Wave Heights from Spatial Ensemble Data

Alicia Takbash, Ian R Young

2019-01-01

A novel approach to estimation of extreme value ocean significant wave height is investigated, in which data from adjacent regions..

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Global Wind Speed and Wave Height Extremes Derived from Long-Duration Satellite Records

Alicia Takbash, Ian R Young, Oyvind Breivik

2019-01-01

The application of extreme-value analysis to long-duration (30 year) global altimeter and radiometer datasets is considered. In co..

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Wind and Wave Extremes from Atmosphere and Wave Model Ensembles

Alberto Meucci, Ian R Young, Oyvind Breivik

2018-11-01

The present work develops an innovative approach to wind speed and significant wave height extreme value analysis. The approach is..

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On the determination of global ocean wind and wave climate from satellite observations

IR Young, MA Donelan

2018-09-15