Improving the seasonal prediction of Australian rainfall extremes

Subdaily Rain-Rate Properties in Western Java Analyzed Using C-Band Doppler Radar

Sopia Lestari, Alain Protat, Valentin Louf, Andrew King, Claire Vincent, Shuichi Mori

2022-09-01

Jakarta, a megacity in Indonesia, experiences recurrent floods associated with heavy rainfall. Characteristics of subdaily rainfal..

Preparing for a post-net-zero world

Andrew D King, Jacqueline Peel, Tilo Ziehn, Kathryn J Bowen, Harry LO McClelland, Celia McMichael, Zebedee RJ Nicholls, JM Kale Sniderman

2022-08-11

Variability of Jakarta Rain-Rate Characteristics Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Topography

Sopia Lestari, Andrew King, Claire Vincent, Alain Protat, David Karoly, Shuichi Mori

2022-08-01

Research on the interaction between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and rainfall around Jakarta is limited, although the influ..

Tropical, Subtropical, and Extratropical Atmospheric Rivers in the Australian Region

Kimberley J Reid, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Debra Hudson

2022-05-01

Studies of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Australia have, so far, only focused on northwest cloudband-type weather systems. Here we..

On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

SE Perkins-Kirkpatrick, DA Stone, DM Mitchell, S Rosier, AD King, YTE Lo, J Pastor-Paz, D Frame, M Wehner

2022-02-01

Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of..

Characteristics of extreme rainfall in different gridded datasets over India during 1983-2015

Suman Bhattacharyya, S Sreekesh, Andrew King

2022-01-12

Understanding the spatial and temporal occurrences of extreme rainfall events and their changes is crucial for reducing the risk a..

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

Kimberley J Reid, Travis A O'Brien, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane

2021-11-28

During March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum dai..

Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels

Andrew D King, JM Kale Sniderman, Andrea J Dittus, Josephine R Brown, Ed Hawkins, Tilo Ziehn

2021-11-25

Transient and Quasi-Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Global Warming

Andrew D King, Alexander R Borowiak, Josephine R Brown, David J Frame, Luke J Harrington, Seung-Ki Min, Angeline Pendergrass, Maria Rugenstein, JM Kale Sniderman, Daithi A Stone

2021-11-01

Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate..

Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely

Fraser C Lott, Andrew Ciavarella, John J Kennedy, Andrew D King, Peter A Stott, Simon FB Tett, Dongqian Wang

2021-10-01

Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability..

Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Nina

Eun-Pa Lim, Debra Hudson, Matthew C Wheeler, Andrew G Marshall, Andrew King, Hongyan Zhu, Harry H Hendon, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Blair Trewin, Morwenna Griffiths, Avijeet Ramchurn, Griffith Young

2021-09-16

The austral spring climate of 2020 was characterised by the occurrence of La Niña, which is the most predictable climate driver of..

Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst

2021-05-01

The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of hum..

Transient and quasi-equilibrium climate states at 1.5{degree sign}C and 2{degree sign}C global warming

Andrew David King, Alexander R Borowiak, Josephine R Brown, David John Frame, Luke James Harrington, Seung-Ki Min, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, Maria AA Rugenstein, Kale Sniderman, Dáithí A Stone

2021-04-13

Extreme rainfall in New Zealand and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

Kimberley J Reid, Suzanne M Rosier, Luke J Harrington, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane

2021-04-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow and elongated regions of enhanced horizontal water vapour transport. Considerable research on ..

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019

Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H Hendon, Li Shi, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Debra Hudson, Andrew King, Blair Trewin, Morwenna Griffiths, Andrew Marshall

2021-02-20

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (Tmin) that occurred across northern and eastern Aust..

Method uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections

P Uhe, D Mitchell, PD Bates, MR Allen, RA Betts, C Huntingford, AD King, BM Sanderson, H Shiogama

2021-02-01

Precipitation events cause disruption around the world and will be altered by climate change. However, different climate modeling ..

Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on "Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively"

Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Michael F Wehner, Sophie C Lewis

2021-01-01

We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this ..

A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses

S Philip, S Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst

2020-11-10

Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events...

The Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Identification to Integrated Water Vapor Transport Threshold, Resolution, and Regridding Method

Kimberley J Reid, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Ewan Short

2020-10-27

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated narrow bands of enhanced water vapor that can cause intense rainfall and flooding. ARs only..

Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss

Lauren J Vargo, Brian M Anderson, Ruzica Dadic, Huw J Horgan, Andrew N Mackintosh, Andrew D King, Andrew M Lorrey

2020-08-03

Glaciers are unique indicators of climate change. While recent global-scale glacier decline has been attributed to anthropogenic f..

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Markus G Donat, Andrew D King, Qiaohong Sun

2020-06-28

This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observ..

Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits over East-Central Asia

M Zhang, H Yu, AD King, Y Wei, J Huang, Y Ren

2020-05-27

East-Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive regions to climate change, and the variability of extreme precipitat..

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia

Andrew D King, Debra Hudson, Eun-Pa Lim, Andrew G Marshall, Harry H Hendon, Todd P Lane, Oscar Alves

2020-04-13

Seasonal climate prediction to date has largely focussed on probabilistic forecasts for above- and below-average conditions in cli..

Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

E Hawkins, D Frame, L Harrington, M Joshi, A King, M Rojas, R Sutton

2020-03-28

Changes in climate are usually considered in terms of trends or differences over time. However, for many impacts requiring adaptat..

The role of climate variability in Australian drought

Andrew D King, Andy J Pitman, Benjamin J Henley, Anna M Ukkola, Josephine R Brown

2020-02-24

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to ..

A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises.

Mark C Quigley, Januka Attanayake, Andrew King, Fabian Prideaux

2020-01-01

Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Ear..

Annual Changes in Rainfall Extremes over the Megacity Jakarta

Sopia Lestari, Andrew King, Claire Vincent

2020-01-01

Heavy rainfall has been known as one of the factors inducing hydrometeorological hazards over the Megacity Jakarta. However, resea..

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Benjamin J Henley, Josephine R Brown

2020-01-01

under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between spec..

Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes

AD King, AH Butler, M Jucker, NO Earl, I Rudeva

2019-12-27

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked with anomalously cold temperatures at the surface in the middle to high lati..

Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global mean warming

Sophie C Lewis, Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Daniel M Mitchell

2019-12-01

Local- and regional-scale heat extremes can increase at a significantly greater rate than global mean changes, presenting challeng..

The Australian Northwest Cloudband: Climatology, Mechanisms, and Association with Precipitation

Kimberley J Reid, Ian Simmonds, Claire L Vincent, Andrew D King

2019-10-01

Australian northwest cloudbands (NWCBs) are continental-scale bands of continuous cloud that stretch from northwest to southeast A..

Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

Sophie C Lewis, Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Michael F Wehner

2019-09-01

Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These..

Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia

Benjamin J Henley, Murray C Peel, Rory Nathan, Andrew David King, Anna M Ukkola, David J Karoly, Kim S Tan

2019-08-02

Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..

Seasonal dependence of rainfall extremes in and around Jakarta, Indonesia

Sopia Lestari, Andrew King, Claire Vincent, David Karoly, Alain Protat

2019-06-01

This study investigates the interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variation in rainfall extremes (REs) in Jakarta and surroundi..

The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming

Andrew D King

2019-06-01

How the pattern of the Earth’s surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understa..

Assessing Contributions of Major Emitters' Paris-Era Decisions to Future Temperature Extremes

Sophie C Lewis, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Glenn Althor, Andrew D King, Luke Kemp

2019-04-16

The likelihood and severity of high-impact future temperature extremes can be reduced through climate change mitigation efforts. H..

Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming

JM Kale Sniderman, Josephine R Brown, Jon D Woodhead, Andrew D King, Nathan P Gillett, Katarzyna B Tokarska, Katja Lorbacher, John Hellstrom, Russell N Drysdale, Malte Meinshausen

2019-03-01

Climate projections1–3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in re..

Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world

Luke J Harrington, Sophie Lewis, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Andrew D King, Friederike EL Otto

2019-02-01

Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluc..

Approaches to attribution of extreme temperature and precipitation events using multi-model and single-member ensembles of general circulation models

SC Lewis, SE Perkins-Kirkpatrick, AD King

2019-01-01

Extreme temperature and precipitation events occurring in Australia in recent decades have caused significant socio-economic and e..

Using Global and Regional Model Simulations to Understand Maritime Continent Wet-Season Rainfall Variability

Andrew D King, Claire L Vincent

2018-11-28

The Maritime Continent is a densely populated area of complex topography located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is an a..

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C of Global Warming

Andrew D King, Reto Knutti, Peter Uhe, Daniel M Mitchell, Sophie C Lewis, Julie M Arblaster, Nicolas Freychet

2018-09-01

Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the ta..

Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations

EM Fischer, U Beyerle, CF Schleussner, AD King, R Knutti

2018-08-28

Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that model‐based estima..

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact-Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

LJ Harrington, D Frame, AD King, FEL Otto

2018-07-16

In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature,..

The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming

AD King, LJ Harrington

2018-05-28

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels with a preferred ambitious 1.5°C target...