Improving the seasonal prediction of Australian rainfall extremes
Grant number: DE180100638 | Funding period: 2018 - 2021
This project aims to investigate the predictability of Australian extreme rainfall using the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal prediction system and new re-analyses and climate models. Extreme rainfall events in Australia are often associated with loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the environment, but some impacts can be mitigated with improved forecasting. This project will analyse influences of climate change and climate variability on seasonal-scale predictability of extreme rainfall. This will increase our understanding of the processes behind extreme rainfall events and where predictability arises from, and this would result in improvements in forecasting.
Related publications (36)
Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely
Fraser C Lott, Andrew Ciavarella, John J Kennedy, Andrew D King, Peter A Stott, Simon FB Tett, Dongqian Wang
Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability..
Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Nina
Eun-Pa Lim, Debra Hudson, Matthew C Wheeler, Andrew G Marshall, Andrew King, Hongyan Zhu, Harry H Hendon, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Blair Trewin, Morwenna Griffiths, Avijeet Ramchurn, Griffith Young
The austral spring climate of 2020 was characterised by the occurrence of La Niña, which is the most predictable climate driver of..
Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution
GJ van Oldenborgh, K van der Wiel, S Kew, S Philip, F Otto, R Vautard, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of hum..
Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019
Eun-Pa Lim, Harry H Hendon, Li Shi, Catherine de Burgh-Day, Debra Hudson, Andrew King, Blair Trewin, Morwenna Griffiths, Andrew Marshall
We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (Tmin) that occurred across northern and eastern Aust..
Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on "Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively"
Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Michael F Wehner, Sophie C Lewis
We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this ..
A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
S Philip, S Kew, GJ van Oldenborgh, F Otto, R Vautard, K van der Wiel, A King, F Lott, J Arrighi, R Singh, M van Aalst
Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events...
The Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Identification to Integrated Water Vapor Transport Threshold, Resolution, and Regridding Method
Kimberley J Reid, Andrew D King, Todd P Lane, Ewan Short
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated narrow bands of enhanced water vapor that can cause intense rainfall and flooding. ARs only..
Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss
Lauren J Vargo, Brian M Anderson, Ruzica Dadic, Huw J Horgan, Andrew N Mackintosh, Andrew D King, Andrew M Lorrey
Glaciers are unique indicators of climate change. While recent global-scale glacier decline has been attributed to anthropogenic f..
Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation
Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Markus G Donat, Andrew D King, Qiaohong Sun
This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in extreme precipitation during 1951–2015. Observ..
A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises.
Mark C Quigley, Januka Attanayake, Andrew King, Fabian Prideaux
Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Ear..
Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia
Andrew D King, Debra Hudson, Eun-Pa Lim, Andrew G Marshall, Harry H Hendon, Todd P Lane, Oscar Alves
Seasonal climate prediction to date has largely focussed on probabilistic forecasts for above- and below-average conditions in cli..
Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C of global mean warming
Sophie C Lewis, Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Daniel M Mitchell
Local- and regional-scale heat extremes can increase at a significantly greater rate than global mean changes, presenting challeng..
The Australian Northwest Cloudband: Climatology, Mechanisms, and Association with Precipitation
Kimberley J Reid, Ian Simmonds, Claire L Vincent, Andrew D King
Australian northwest cloudbands (NWCBs) are continental-scale bands of continuous cloud that stretch from northwest to southeast A..
Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies
Sophie C Lewis, Andrew D King, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Michael F Wehner
Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These..
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia
Benjamin J Henley, Murray C Peel, Rory Nathan, Andrew David King, Anna M Ukkola, David J Karoly, Kim S Tan
Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine ..
Assessing Contributions of Major Emitters' Paris-Era Decisions to Future Temperature Extremes
Sophie C Lewis, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Glenn Althor, Andrew D King, Luke Kemp
The likelihood and severity of high-impact future temperature extremes can be reduced through climate change mitigation efforts. H..
Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming
JM Kale Sniderman, Josephine R Brown, Jon D Woodhead, Andrew D King, Nathan P Gillett, Katarzyna B Tokarska, Katja Lorbacher, John Hellstrom, Russell N Drysdale, Malte Meinshausen
Climate projections1–3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in re..
Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world
Luke J Harrington, Sophie Lewis, Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Andrew D King, Friederike EL Otto
Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluc..
On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C of Global Warming
Andrew D King, Reto Knutti, Peter Uhe, Daniel M Mitchell, Sophie C Lewis, Julie M Arblaster, Nicolas Freychet
Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the ta..