VULNERABILITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WATER OUTCOMES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Grant number: LP170100598 | Funding period: 2018 - 2022
This project aims to assess the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to extended droughts in a variable and changing climate. Governments around the world are investing in the restoration of regulated river systems with environmental water. However, the risks of climate change for environmental water management are seldom considered. This project will model the change in environmental and consumptive water use during extended dry periods, and couple this to models of ecological dynamics and failure thresholds. This will improve the success of Australia’s major environmental water programs in sustaining benefits through future multi-year droughts.
Related publications (23)
A modified Gould-Dincer method to assess yield of carry-over reservoirs with environmental water requirements
Peizhen Ren, Michael Stewardson, Murray Peel, Keirnan Fowler
Protecting freshwater systems to ensure sustainability requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from local to glo..
Explaining changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens
The Millennium Drought lasted more than a decade and is notable for causing persistent shifts in the relationship between rainfall..
Modular Assessment of Rainfall-Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) v2.1: an object-oriented implementation of 47 established hydrological models for improved speed and readability
Luca Trotter, Wouter JM Knoben, Keirnan JA Fowler, Margarita Saft, Murray C Peel
The Modular Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Models Toolbox (MARRMoT) is a flexible modelling framework reproducing the behaviour of ..
Hydrological Shifts Threaten Water Resources
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Robert Wilby, Connor McCutcheon, Tim Peterson
Recent shifts in the hydrological behavior of natural watersheds suggest acute challenges for water planning under climate change...
Identifying Causal Interactions Between Groundwater and Streamflow Using Convergent Cross-Mapping
Giancarlo Bonotto, Tim J Peterson, Keirnan Fowler, Andrew W Western
Groundwater (GW) is commonly conceptualized as causally linked to streamflow (SF). However, confirming where and how it occurs is ..
Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
Avril C Horne, J Angus Webb, Meghan Mussehl, Andrew John, Libby Rumpff, Keirnan Fowler, Daniel Lovell, LeRoy Poff
The numerous environmental flows assessment methods that exist typically assume a stationary climate. Adaptive management is commo..
Integrated framework for rapid climate stress testing on a monthly timestep
Keirnan Fowler, Natasha Ballis, Avril Horne, Andrew John, Rory Nathan, Murray Peel
“Bottom-up” methods are increasingly used to assess the vulnerability of water systems to climate change. Central to these methods..
Nonstationary Runoff Responses Can Interact With Climate Change to Increase Severe Outcomes for Freshwater Ecology
Andrew John, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Keirnan Fowler, Michael Stewardson
Climate change is projected to impact multiple components of the flow regime. However, changes in some ecologically important aspe..
Robust Climate Change Adaptation for Environmental Flows in the Goulburn River, Australia
Andrew John, Avril Horne, Rory Nathan, Keirnan Fowler, J Angus Webb, Michael Stewardson
Climate change presents severe risks for the implementation and success of environmental flows worldwide. Current environmental fl..
Exploring the role and decision-making behavior of irrigation water supply authorities in Australia
Lubna Meempatta, J Angus Webb, Louise A Keogh, Avril C Horne, Michael J Stewardson
Water supply authorities (WSAs) can influence the behaviour of water users and are influential actors in water governance. Despite..
CAMELS-AUS: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 222 catchments in Australia
Keirnan JA Fowler, Suwash Chandra Acharya, Nans Addor, Chihchung Chou, Murray C Peel
This paper presents the Australian edition of the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) series of..
Towards more realistic runoff projections by removing limits on simulated soil moisture deficit
Keirnan JA Fowler, Gemma Coxon, Jim E Freer, Wouter JM Knoben, Murray C Peel, Thorsten Wagener, Andrew W Western, Ross A Woods, Lu Zhang
Rainfall-runoff models based on conceptual “buckets” are frequently used in climate change impact studies to provide runoff projec..
Disaggregated monthly hydrological models can outperform daily models in providing daily flow statistics and extrapolate well to a drying climate
Andrew John, Keirnan Fowler, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Michael Stewardson
Daily timescale hydrological information is important for many purposes such as flood estimation, predicting the consequences of c..
Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk
Andrew John, Avril Horne, Rory Nathan, Michael Stewardson, J Angus Webb, Jun Wang, N LeRoy Poff
Many freshwater ecosystems are in decline because of anthropogenic disturbance including climate change, yet our understanding of ..
Does the topology of the river network influence the delivery of riverine ecosystem services?
Seema Karki, Michael J Stewardson, James Angus Webb, Keirnan Fowler, Giri Raj Kattel, David J Gilvear
Riverine ecosystems provide important ecosystem services reflecting their unique forms and functions. While the effects of stresso..
How to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review
Andrew John, Rory Nathan, Avril Horne, Michael Stewardson, J Angus Webb
Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate ..
Many Commonly Used Rainfall‐Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections
Keirnan Fowler, Wouter Knoben, Murray Peel, Tim Peterson, Dongryeol Ryu, Margarita Saft, Ki‐Weon Seo, Andrew Western
Evidence suggests that catchment state variables such as groundwater can exhibit multiyear trends. This means that their state may..
Large-sample hydrology: recent progress, guidelines for new datasets and grand challenges
Nans Addor, Hong X Do, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Gemma Coxon, Keirnan Fowler, Pablo A Mendoza
Large-sample hydrology (LSH) relies on data from large sets (tens to thousands) of catchments to go beyond individual case studies..
Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management
Avril C Horne, Rory Nathan, N LeRoy Poff, Nick R Bond, J Angus Webb, Jun Wang, Andrew John
Climate change will increase water stress in many regions placing greater pressures on rivers to meet human and ecological water n..