Water availability and demand: better forecasts, better management

A hybrid framework for short-term irrigation demand forecasting

L Forouhar, W Wu, QJ Wang, K Hakala

2022-11-01

Reliable short-term forecasts of Irrigation Water Demand (IWD) can provide useful information to help water supply system operator..

Spatial mode-based calibration (SMoC) of forecast precipitation fields from numerical weather prediction models

Pengcheng Zhao, Quan J Wang, Wenyan Wu, Qichun Yang

2022-10-01

Statistical calibration of precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is routinely performed grid-cell..

Calibrating anomalies improves forecasting of daily reference crop evapotranspiration

Qichun Yang, Quan J Wang, Kirsti Hakala

2022-06-04

Forecasting of short-term reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) provides valuable information for hydrological, agricultural, an..

Power transformation of variables for post-processing precipitation forecasts: Regionally versus locally optimized parameter values

Yiliang Du, Quan J Wang, Wenyan Wu, Qichun Yang

2022-05-15

Short-term precipitation forecasts are mainly derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Raw NWP forecasts typically ..

Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting

Qichun Yang, Quan J Wang, Andrew W Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, Kirsti Hakala

2022-02-18

Evapotranspiration plays an important role in the terrestrial water cycle. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) has been widely..

Introducing long-term trends into subseasonal temperature forecasts through trend-aware postprocessing

Yawen Shao, Quan J Wang, Andrew Schepen, Dongryeol Ryu

2022-01-06

Skilful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for issuing early warnings of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods. Oper..

Improved Trend-Aware Postprocessing of GCM Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

Yawen Shao, Quan J Wang, Andrew Schepen, Dongryeol Ryu, Florian Pappenberger

2022-01-01

Climate trends have been observed over the recent decades in many parts of the world, but current global climate models (GCMs) for..

Extending a joint probability modelling approach for post-processing ensemble precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction models

Pengcheng Zhao, Quan J Wang, Wenyan Wu, Qichun Yang

2021-12-17

Statistical post-processing has been widely employed to correct bias and dispersion errors in raw ensemble precipitation forecasts..

Bias-correcting input variables enhances forecasting of reference crop evapotranspiration

Qichun Yang, Quan J Wang, Kirsti Hakala, Yating Tang

2021-09-02

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is calculated using a standard formula with temperature, vapor pressure, solar radiation, ..

Propagating reliable estimates of hydrological forecast uncertainty to many lead times

James C Bennett, David E Robertson, Quan J Wang, Ming Li, Jean-Michel Perraud

2021-08-24

We propose a revised version of the ERRIS (error reduction and representation in stages) error model capable of reliably propagati..

Going with the Trend: Forecasting Seasonal Climate Conditions under Climate Change

Yawen Shao, Quan J Wang, Andrew Schepen, Dongryeol Ryu

2021-08-01

For managing climate variability and adapting to climate change, seasonal forecasts are widely produced to inform decision-making...

Achieving effective calibration of precipitation forecasts over a continental scale

Qichun Yang, Quan J Wang, Kirsti Hakala

2021-04-18

Study region: Australia. Study focus: We developed the Seasonally Coherent Calibration (SCC) model to post-process precipitation f..

An error model for long-range ensemble forecasts of ephemeral rivers

James C Bennett, QJ Wang, David E Robertson, Robert Bridgart, Julien Lerat, Ming Li, Kelvin Michael

2021-03-25

Few ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are designed to operate for ephemeral rivers. In this study, we revise our error model..

Embedding trend into seasonal temperature forecasts through statistical calibration ofGCMoutputs

Yawen Shao, Quan J Wang, Andrew Schepen, Dongryeol Ryu

2021-01-01

Accurate and reliable seasonal climate forecasts are frequently sought by climate‐sensitive sectors to support decision‐making und..

Which precipitation forecasts to use? Deterministic versus coarser-resolution ensemble NWP models

Pengcheng Zhao, Quan J Wang, Wenyan Wu, Qichun Yang

2020-12-28

Deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and ensemble NWP models are routinely run worldwide to assist weather fore..