How Can We Explain And Best Control The Spread Of Influenza And Pandemic Influenza Between People?

Grant number: 454645 | Funding period: 2007 - 2010



There is uncertainty about how many people can be infected by a single person with influenza at the start of an outbreak. Some data suggest that a single generation of transmission can infect 10-20 other people. With such a rate of growth (ie 10-20 fold every 3 days) the spread of an influenza outbreak is virtually unstoppable. Other data suggest that each person with influenza infects less than 2 other people on average. With such a lower rate of growth, control would be more feasible. Our project will use data from historic and contemporary outbreaks of influenza and build mathematical models to explain the rate of growth of an influenza outbreak in terms of: 1. The proportion of people ex..

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