From prediction to adaptation: responding to rapid ecosystem shifts under climate change
Grant number: FT100100819 | Funding period: 2011 - 2016
Nobody knows exactly how climate change will affect the ecosystems on which we depend for our own existence, though negative impacts are widely predicted. This project integrates mathematical, economic and ecological approaches to learn about the most effective way to spend limited funds for sustaining ecosystems threatened by climate change.
Related publications (29)
Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices
Kate E Watermeyer, Payal Bal, Michael J Burgass, Lucie M Bland, Ben Collen, Chris Hallam, Luke T Kelly, Michael A McCarthy, Tracey J Regan, Simone Stevenson, Brendan A Wintle, Emily Nicholson, Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita
Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have ..
steps: Software for spatially and temporally explicit population simulations
Casey Visintin, Natalie J Briscoe, Skipton NC Woolley, Pia E Lentini, Reid Tingley, Brendan A Wintle, Nick Golding
Species population dynamics are driven by spatial and temporal changes in the environment, anthropogenic activities and conservati..
Global synthesis of conservation studies reveals the importance of small habitat patches for biodiversity
Brendan A Wintle, Heini Kujala, Amy Whitehead, Alison Cameron, Sam Veloz, Aija Kukkala, Atte Moilanen, Ascelin Gordon, Pia E Lentini, Natasha CR Cadenhead, Sarah A Bekessy
Island biogeography theory posits that species richness increases with island size and decreases with isolation. This logic underp..
Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets
Emily Nicholson, Elizabeth A Fulton, Thomas M Brooks, Ryan Blanchard, Paul Leadley, Jean Paul Metzger, Karel Mokany, Simone Stevenson, Brendan A Wintle, Skipton NC Woolley, Megan Barnes, James EM Watson, Simon Ferrier
Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfille..
Monitoring, imperfect detection, and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population
Tracy M Rout, Christopher M Baker, Stewart Huxtable, Brendan A Wintle
Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a..
Modelling the spatial variation of vital rates: An evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of correlative species distribution models
Susana Suarez-Seoane, Jose Manuel Alvarez-Martinez, Brendan A Wintle, Carlos Palacin, Juan C Alonso
Aim: Species distribution models based on breeding occurrence data allow for identifying both environmental drivers and geographic..
Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios
Michael Bode, Christopher M Baker, Joe Benshemesh, Tim Burnard, Libby Rumpff, Cindy E Hauser, Jose J Lahoz-Monfort, Brendan A Wintle
Ecosystem-based management requires predictive models of ecosystem dynamics. There are typically insufficient empirical data avail..
Species partitioning in a temperate mountain chain: Segregation by habitat vs. interspecific competition
Giulia Bastianelli, Brendan A Wintle, Elizabeth H Martin, Javier Seoane, Paola Laiolo
Disentangling the relative influence of the environment and biotic interactions in determining species coexistence patterns is a m..
Dealing with Cumulative Biodiversity Impacts in Strategic Environmental Assessment: A New Frontier for Conservation Planning
Amy L Whitehead, Heini Kujala, Brendan A Wintle
Biodiversity impact assessments under threatened species legislation often focus on individual development proposals at a single l..
Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions?
Alejandra Moran-Ordonez, Jose J Lahoz-Monfort, Jane Elith, Brendan A Wintle
Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the most widely used tools in ecology for evaluating the suitability of envir..
Analysis of Trade-Offs Between Biodiversity, Carbon Farming and Agricultural Development in Northern Australia Reveals the Benefits of Strategic Planning
Alejandra Moran-Ordonez, Amy L Whitehead, Gary W Luck, Garry D Cook, Ramona Maggini, James A Fitzsimons, Brendan A Wintle
Australia's northern savannas are one of the few remaining large and mostly intact natural areas on Earth. However, their biodiver..
Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia
Natalie J Briscoe, Michael R Kearney, Chris A Taylor, Brendan A Wintle
Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental ..
Urban bat communities are affected by wetland size, quality, and pollution levels
Tanja Maria Straka, Pia Eloise Lentini, Linda Faye Lumsden, Brendan Anthony Wintle, Rodney van der Ree
Wetlands support unique biota and provide important ecosystem services. These services are highly threatened due to the rate of lo..
Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink
Natasha CR Cadenhead, Michael R Kearney, Danae Moore, Steve McAlpin, Brendan A Wintle
Fire regimes are predicted to change under climate change, with associated impacts on species and ecosystems. However, the magnitu..
Functional responses of insectivorous bats to increasing housing density support "land-sparing' rather than "land-sharing' urban growth strategies
Fiona M Caryl, Linda F Lumsden, Rodney van der Ree, Brendan A Wintle
Debates about ‘land‐sparing’ and ‘land‐sharing’ strategies for conserving biodiversity in cities provide an overly simplistic char..
Towards strategic offsetting of biodiversity loss using spatial prioritization concepts and tools: A case study on mining impacts in Australia
H Kujala, AL Whitehead, WK Morris, BA Wintle
Governments and industries increasingly use offsets to compensate for the unavoidable impacts of development on biodiversity. Howe..
Spatial conservation priorities are highly sensitive to choice of biodiversity surrogates and species distribution model type
Pia E Lentini, Brendan A Wintle
Pressure to conserve biodiversity with limited resources has led to increasing use of species distribution models (SDMs) for spati..
Modelling both dominance and species distribution provides a more complete picture of changes to mangrove ecosystems under climate change
Beth Crase, Peter A Vesk, Adam Liedloff, Brendan A Wintle
Dominant species influence the composition and abundance of other species present in ecosystems. However, forecasts of distributio..
Incorporating detectability of threatened species into environmental impact assessment
Georgia E Garrard, Sarah A Bekessy, Michael A McCarthy, Brendan A Wintle
Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a key mechanism for protecting threatened plant and animal species. Many species are not ..
Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts
Beth Crase, Adam Liedloff, Peter A Vesk, Yusuke Fukuda, Brendan A Wintle
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in ..
Integrating Biological and Social Values When Prioritizing Places for Biodiversity Conservation
Amy L Whitehead, Heini Kujala, Christopher D Ives, Ascelin Gordon, Pia E Lentini, Brendan A Wintle, Emily Nicholson, Christopher M Raymond
The consideration of information on social values in conjunction with biological data is critical for achieving both socially acce..
The use of dynamic landscape metapopulation models for forest management: a case study of the red-backed salamander
Ascelin Gordon, Brendan A Wintle, Sarah A Bekessy, Jennie L Pearce, Lisa A Venier, Joab N Wilson
Spatial models of population dynamics have been proposed as a useful method for predicting the impacts of environmental change on ..
Designing occupancy surveys and interpreting non-detection when observations are imperfect
Brendan A Wintle, Terry V Walshe, Kirsten M Parris, Michael A McCarthy
Aim: Conservation practitioners use biological surveys to ascertain whether or not a site is occupied by a particular species. Wid..
Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?
Damien A Fordham, H Resit Akcakaya, Miguel B Araujo, Jane Elith, David A Keith, Richard Pearson, Tony D Auld, Camille Mellin, John W Morgan, Tracey J Regan, Mark Tozer, Michael J Watts, Matthew White, Brendan A Wintle, Colin Yates, Barry W Brook
Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial dis..