Non- confidential SWARM project

Verbal probabilities: <it>Very likely</it> to be <it>somewhat</it> more confusing than numbers

Bonnie Wintle, Hannah Fraser, Ben Wills, Ann Nicholson, Fiona Fidler

2019-04-17

People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. 'very likely') in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to n..

Better Together: Reliable Application of the Post-9/11 and Post-Iraq US Intelligence Tradecraft Standards Requires Collective Analysis

Alexandru Marcoci, Mark Burgman, Ariel Kruger, Elizabeth Silver, Marissa McBride, Felix Singleton Thorn, Hannah Fraser, Bonnie C Wintle, Fiona Fidler, Ans Vercammen

2019-01-07

Background: The events of 9/11 and the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Ma..

Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management

Victoria Hemming, Terry Walshe, Anca M Hanea, Fiona Fidler, Mark A Burgman

2018-06-22

INTRODUCTION: Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, ..