Journal article

Statistical issues with using herbarium data for the estimation of invasion lag-phases

RJ Hyndman, MB Mesgaran, RD Cousens

Biological Invasions | SPRINGER | Published : 2015

Abstract

Current methods for using herbarium data as time series, for example to estimate the length of the invasion lag phase, often make assumptions that are both statistically and logically inappropriate. We present an alternative statistical approach, estimating the lag phase based on annual rather than cumulative data, a generalized linear model incorporating a log link for overall collection effort, and piecewise linear splines. We demonstrate the method on two species representing good and poor data quality, then apply it to two data sets comprising 448 species/region combinations. Significant lags were detected in only 28 and 40 % of time series, a much lower level than the 95 and 77 % found ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers