Journal article

Vaccination Programs for Endemic Infections: Modelling Real versus Apparent Impacts of Vaccine and Infection Characteristics

Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Nicholas L Geard, Margaret Hellard, Emma S McBryde

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2015

Abstract

Vaccine effect, as measured in clinical trials, may not accurately reflect population-level impact. Furthermore, little is known about how sensitive apparent or real vaccine impacts are to factors such as the risk of re-infection or the mechanism of protection. We present a dynamic compartmental model to simulate vaccination for endemic infections. Several measures of effectiveness are calculated to compare the real and apparent impact of vaccination, and assess the effect of a range of infection and vaccine characteristics on these measures. Although broadly correlated, measures of real and apparent vaccine effectiveness can differ widely. Vaccine impact is markedly underestimated when prim..

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