Vaccination Programs for Endemic Infections: Modelling Real versus Apparent Impacts of Vaccine and Infection Characteristics
Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Nicholas L Geard, Margaret Hellard, Emma S McBryde
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP | Published : 2015
Vaccine effect, as measured in clinical trials, may not accurately reflect population-level impact. Furthermore, little is known about how sensitive apparent or real vaccine impacts are to factors such as the risk of re-infection or the mechanism of protection. We present a dynamic compartmental model to simulate vaccination for endemic infections. Several measures of effectiveness are calculated to compare the real and apparent impact of vaccination, and assess the effect of a range of infection and vaccine characteristics on these measures. Although broadly correlated, measures of real and apparent vaccine effectiveness can differ widely. Vaccine impact is markedly underestimated when prim..View full abstract
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Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council
This work was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council [CDF1034464 to E.S.M] and the Burnet Institute [Jim and Margaret Beever Fellowship to E.S.M].