Prediction of treatment week eight response & sustained virologic response in patients treated with boceprevir plus peginterferon alfa and ribavirin

Abstract

Aim: Sustained virologic response (SVR) can be attained with boceprevir plus peginterferon alfa and ribavirin (PR) in up to 68% of patients, and short duration therapy is possible if plasma HCV RNA levels are undetectable at treatment week 8 (TW8 response). We have developed predictive models for SVR, and TW8 response using data from boceprevir clinical trials. Methods: Regression models were built to predict TW8 response and SVR. Separate models were built for TW8 and SVR using baseline variables only, and compared to models with baseline variables plus HCV RNA change after 4 weeks of PR (TW4 delta). Predictive accuracy was assessed by c-statistics, calibration curves, and decision curve an..