Journal article

Modelling food system resilience: a scenario-based simulation modelling approach to explore future shocks and adaptations in the Australian food system

S CANDY, C BIGGS, K LARSEN, G TURNER

Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences | Springer | Published : 2015

Abstract

This paper outlines a process for exploring food system vulnerability and resilience using scenario modelling with the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF). The capacity of ASFF to simulate how diverse shocks and stressors affect food system behaviour across multiple sectors—with diverse, interconnected and dynamic variables shaping system response—renders ASFF particularly suited for exploring complex issues of future food supply. We used ASFF to explore the significance of alternative agricultural policies for land use, crop production, livestock production, fisheries, food processing, transport, food waste and ultimately food supply. Policies in different scenarios varied with reg..

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