Journal article

Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean regions

JS Wijnands, G Qian, KL Shelton, RJB Fawcett, JCL Chan, Y Kuleshov

Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting | Walter de Gruyter GmbH | Published : 2015

Abstract

AbstractThe Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) issues operational tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal forecasts for the Australian region (AR) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) and subregions therein. The forecasts are issued in October, ahead of the Southern Hemisphere TC season (November to April). Improvement of operational TC seasonal forecasts can lead to more accurate warnings for coastal communities to prepare for TC hazards. This study investigates the use of support vector regression (SVR) models, exploring new explanatory variables and non-linear relationships between them, the use of model averaging, and lastly the integration of forecast intervals based on a bias-corrected and ..

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