Journal article

Improving the Operational Methodology of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean Regions

JS Wijnands, K Shelton, Y Kuleshov

Advances in Meteorology | HINDAWI LTD | Published : 2014


Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have a major impact on the coastal communities of Australia and Pacific Island countries. Preparedness is one of the key factors to limit TC impacts and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues an outlook of TC seasonal activity ahead of TC season for the Australian Region (AR; 5°S to 40°S, 90°E to 160°E) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO; 5°S to 40°S, 142.5°E to 120°W). This paper investigates the use of support vector regression models and new explanatory variables to improve the accuracy of seasonal TC predictions. Correlation analysis and subsequent cross-validation of the generated models showed that the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) performs well as an explanato..

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Funding Acknowledgements

The Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) provided support for this research through the PACCSAP's project "Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones." Dr. Andrew Watkins from the National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.