Evaluation of speed-based travel time estimation models

Abstract

Travel time estimation models, which rely on speed data provided from point detectors (usually inductive loops), have application in travel time prediction and network performance monitoring. Unfortunately there are limited, and at times counterintuitive, results in the literature about their performance. This paper focuses on the field evaluation of four speed-based travel time estimation models, namely, the instantaneous model, the time slice model, the dynamic time slice model, and the linear model. Those models are evaluated using data from two operational motorways in Melbourne, Australia. Travel time estimation errors are quantified against actual travel times measured using a timed nu..