Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

KC Perera; AW Western; B George; B Nawarathna

Journal article

Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

KC Perera, AW Western, B George, B Nawarathna

Journal of Hydrology | ELSEVIER | Published : 2015

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.007

Abstract

Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi,ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi,OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX mod..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Andrew Western Author

Grants

Funding Acknowledgements

The authors wish to express their gratitude to Goulburn-Murray Water and the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia for providing irrigation flow data and observed weather data for research purposes and Dr Mark Bailey, Mr Mick Doherty and Mr John Weber, Goulburn-Murray Water, Australia for their advice and assistance with data, especially during data collection. Kushan C. Perera was supported by an Australian Post-Graduate Award from the University of Melbourne.