Egyptian and Syrian commodity markets after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire: A Bayesian structural VECM analysis

L PANZA, T Wozniak

University of Melboune | Published : 2015


The disruption of the Ottoman Empire caused dramatic changes to the economic and political structure of the Middle East. The newly established nations, incorporated into British and French formal and informal empires, actively implemented a range of protectionist policies, thus disrupting the regions traditional trade flows and patterns. This paper investigates the impact of this new economic setting on commodity market integration in Syria and Egypt, using Bayesian inference. After testing for co-integration through the calculation of Bayes factors and computing impulse response functions, our results point to the absence of cross border market integration.