Application of a synthetic cyclone method for assessment of tropical cyclone storm tides in Samoa

Abstract

Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges cause damaging impacts in coastal regions. The present study uses a stochastic cyclone modelling approach to evaluate the likelihoods of storm tides, the combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, for Samoa. Cyclones that occurred in the vicinity of Samoa from 1969 to 2009 are used to build a stochastic tropical cyclone data set, and an analytic cyclone model and hydrodynamic model are used to model storm tides under average, La Niña and El Niño cyclone and sea level conditions for present climate conditions as well as cyclone and sea level conditions relevant for 2055, and storm tide return periods are estimated. We find that extreme storm tide..