Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada

Abstract

The regeneration niche of trees greatly narrows the fundamental niche and is sensitive to climatic change. Development from seed and phenology are regulated by biological and environmental controls, shaping forest successional pathways. We hypothesized that recent climate change is reducing regeneration suitability in northern forests. We used a process-based ecophysiological model to examine changes in forest regeneration conditions across an elevational and latitudinal gradient in Alberta, Canada from 1923 to 2012. We compared these results to a recent empirical study in the region to infer the recent drivers of regeneration change in northern forests. Our results suggest that these forest..