Impact of climate data uncertainty on estimated system yield

Abstract

Time series simulation of reservoir behaviour using synthetically generated streamflow and rainfall data is an integral part of calculating drought risks for many water utilities in Australia. Two key parameters that are required for the generation of the synthetic climate data are the mean and standard deviation of the annual data for each site, these being estimated from historic data. Stedinger and Taylor (1982) explored the impact of uncertainty in these parameters on the simulation of reservoir behaviour and the size of reservoir that would be required in order to maintain a specified target release for a 50 year sequence of inflow. The contemporary focus of drought risk assessments is ..