Probabilistic modeling and assessment of the impact of electric heat pumps on low voltage distribution networks

Abstract

Electrification of heating by making use of the Electric Heat Pump (EHP) technology powered by increasing shares of electricity renewable sources is seen as a potential key approach to decarbonise the energy sector in many countries, and especially in the UK. However, the widespread use of EHPs in substitution of fuel boilers might cause significant issues in terms of electrical distribution network impact, particularly at the low voltage (LV) level. This has not been addressed properly in the studies carried out so far also due to lack of available data and suitable models. In this light, this paper introduces a novel and comprehensive probabilistic methodology based on Monte Carlo simulati..