A risk-based model for cogeneration resource planning

Abstract

This paper focuses on the application of risk-based models to cogeneration system planning in the presence of uncertainties. Starting from the electrical and thermal load patterns, and the electricity and gas prices for a reference year, the uncertain variables for the successive years of analysis (demand and energy prices) are represented by using average values and covariance matrices, taking into account their possible correlations. A multi-year planning analysis is carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations, calculating the probability distributions of the net present costs. The same procedure is repeated by considering the base case of separate production and a number of alternativ..