Risk of active tuberculosis in the five years following infection ⋯ 15%?

Abstract

Background: It is often stated that the lifetime risk of developing active TB after an index infection is 5% to 10%, one-half of which accrues in the 2 to 5 years following infection. The goal of this study was to determine whether such estimates are consistent with local programmatic data. Methods: This study included close contacts of individuals with active pulmonary TB notified in the Australian state of Victoria from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2013, who we deemed to have been infected as a result of their exposure. Survival analysis was first performed on the assumption of complete follow-up through to the end of the study period. The analysis was then repeated with imputation of ..