A model of behavioural adaptation as a contributor to the safety-in-numbers effect for cyclists

Abstract

The safety in numbers (SiN) effect is often invoked as a mechanism by which increasing numbers of vulnerable road users introduced into a transport network can result in reduced per-capita risk of collision resulting in injury or death. Mechanisms underlying SiN's function, however, have not been well described. Extending previous agent-based modelling work, this study explored the potential role of behavioural adaptation of drivers to the presence of cyclists that followed patterns of Rescorla-Wagner (R-W) learning models. Results indicated that SiN effects consistent with those present in real-world studies were replicable in a simulated environment, and that R-W model input settings were ..