Journal article

Stock Price Modeling: Separation of Trend and Fluctuations, and Implications

BD Craven, SMN Islam

Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies | Published : 2015

Abstract

A series of stock prices typically shows a large trend and smaller fluctuations. These two parts are often studied together, as if parts of a single process; but they appear to be separately caused. In this paper, the two parts are analyzed separately, so that one does not distort the other, and some spurious interaction terms are avoided. This contributes a model, in which a wide range of features of stock price behavior are identified. With logarithms of stock prices, the two parts become of more comparable size. This is found to lead to a simpler additive model. On a logarithmic scale, the stock prices show the trend as a straight line (which can be extrapolated), with added fluctuations ..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

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