A decision tree model for the implementation of a safety strategy in the horse-racing industry

Abstract

Objectives The profession of a horse-racing jockey is a dangerous one. We developed a decision tree model quantifying the effects of implementing different safety strategies on jockey fall and injury rates and their associated costs. Methods Data on race-day falls were obtained from stewards’ reports from August 2002 to July 2009. Insurance claim data were provided by Principal Racing Authorities and workers’ compensation authorities in each jurisdiction. Fall and claim incidence data were used as baseline rates. The model considered (1) the status quo, in which policy was unchanged; and (2) compared it with four hypothetical changes in policy that restricted apprentice jockeys from riding l..