Physics-based approach to wave statistics and probability

Abstract

Design criteria in ocean engineering, whether this is one in 50 years or one in 5000 years event, are hardly ever based on measurements, and rather on statistical distributions of relevant metocean properties. Of utmost interest is the tail of these distributions, that is rare events such as the highest waves with low probability. Engineers have long since realised that the superposition of linear waves with narrow-banded spectrum as depicted by the Rayleigh distribution underestimates the probability of extreme wave crests, and is not adequate for wave heights either, which is a critical shortcoming as far as the engineering design is concerned. Ongoing theoretical and experimental efforts ..