Spline-based modelling of near-surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones

Abstract

A tropical cyclone (TC) making landfall at a populated coastal area can cause both loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the natural environment. Wind field models which accurately describe the spatial distribution of TC wind speeds can assist in reducing some of these risks, by identifying the most dangerous locations with respect to damaging winds. Existing models either have limitations in describing the skewness of the wind field or do not have the flexibility to incorporate multiple wind observations. We developed a new mathematical model to represent the temporal-spatial distribution of near-surface wind speeds in a TC over an open ocean that captures asymmetries in both the ey..