Indices for for the evaluation of wildfire spread simulations using contemporaneous predictions and observations of burnt area

Abstract

Methods to objectively evaluate performance are critical for model development. In contrast to recent advances in wildfire simulation, there has been limited attention to evaluating fire model performance. Information to validate fire models is typically limited, commonly to a few perimeter observations at a small number of points in time. We review metrics for comparing two burnt areas at a point in time: observed and predicted. These are compared in an idealised landscape and with a case study evaluating the performance of simulations of an Australian wildfire. We assessed: Shape Deviation Index (SDI), Jaccard's coefficient, F1, Sørensen's Similarity and Area Difference Index (ADI). For de..