Journal article
Projecting future smoking prevalence to 2025 and beyond in New Zealand using smoking prevalence data from the 2013 census
FS van der Deen, T Ikeda, L Cobiac, N Wilson, T Blakely
New Zealand Medical Journal | NEW ZEALAND MEDICAL ASSOC | Published : 2014
Abstract
Background We have previously published a forecasting model of future smoking prevalence in New Zealand (NZ). Under business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions NZ’s smokefree 2025 goal was not attained by any demographic group. However, the 2013 Census (which included a question on smoking) showed a greater than expected fall in prevalence, especially for Māori. We therefore aimed to provide upgraded projections to inform policy around tobacco endgame planning. Method The previously developed dynamic forecasting model was re-specified using smoking prevalence data from the 2006 and 2013 censuses from NZ. Calculations included changes in initiation by age 20 years, and net annual cessation rates, by ..
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Awarded by Health Research Council of New Zealand
Funding Acknowledgements
FSvdD is supported by a University of Otago Doctoral Scholarship, and the other authors are supported by the Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE3) Programme which is studying the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various tobacco control strategies and receives funding support from the Health Research Council of New Zealand (Project number 10/248). No ethics approval was required, as the study uses only secondary data.