Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame

Abstract

Objective We examine the potential role for taxation in the tobacco endgame in New Zealand, where the goal is to become 'smokefree' (less than 5% smoking prevalence) by 2025. Design Modelling study using a dynamic population model. Setting and participants New Zealand, Maori and non-Maori men and women. Interventions Annual increases in tobacco excise tax of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% (with 10% reflecting the annual increase recently legislated by the New Zealand Government to 2016). Results With a continued commitment to annual 10% increases in tobacco excise tax, in addition to on-going Quitline and cessation support, New Zealand's smoking prevalence is projected to fall from 15.1% in 2013 to 8...