Journal article

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 degrees C

Joeri Rogelj, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Hoehne, Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete, Harald Winkler, Roberto S Chaeffer, Fus Ha, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen

NATURE | NATURE PORTFOLIO | Published : 2016


The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved,..

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Awarded by European Union

Awarded by Australian Research Council (ARC)

Funding Acknowledgements

We thank all involved in the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, in particular J. McGlade, J. Alcamo and B. Metz, the members of the steering committee, all its authors, and the secretariat at UNEP-DTU, in particular A. Olhoff and J. Christensen. We acknowledge and are grateful for the data contributions of, and discussion with, all the global and national modelling groups, in particular M. Rocha, B. Hare, M. Schaeffer (Climate Analytics, Germany, Climate Action Tracker), L. Jeffery (PIK, Germany, Climate Action Tracker), P van Breevoort (Ecofys, The Netherlands, Climate Action Tracker), A. Admiraal, M. Roelfsema, H. van Soest (PBL, The Netherlands), N. Forsell (IIASA, Austria), L. Cozzi, F. Kesicke (IEA, France), J. Cranston Turner, R. Boyd (LSE, UK), S. Dockweiler (DEA, Denmark), L. Siegel, E. Sawin (Climate Interactive, USA), A. Kitous, K. Keramidas, G. Grassi (JRC, European Commission). G. Iyer (PNNL, USA), and the UNFCCC Secretariat. Without their contributions, this Perspective would have had a much more limited data basis, We thank S. Sterl (NewClimate Institute, Germany) and M. Roelfsema (PBL, The Netherlands) for assistance with data analysis, M. Strubegger (IIASA, Austria) for providing load factor estimates, V. Krey and O. Fricko (IIASA, Austria) for providing capture efficiencies for negative emissions technologies, and J. Cook for critical feedback on the manuscript and figures. We acknowledge and thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for hosting and maintaining the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database. J.R., N.H. and K.R. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No, 642147 (CD-LINKS). M.M. is the recipient of an Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship (grant number FT130100809).