Journal article
Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions
KC Perera, AW Western, DE Robertson, B George, B Nawarathna
Water Resources Research | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR018532
Abstract
Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather f..
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Funding Acknowledgements
The authors wish to express their gratitude to Goulburn-Murray Water and the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia for providing irrigation flow data and observed and forecast (from the NWP system ACCESS-G) weather data for research purposes and Mark Bailey, Mick Doherty, and John Weber, Goulburn-Murray Water, Australia and Alan Seed and Shaun Cooper, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia for their advice and assistance with data, especially during data collection. Irrigation system flow data are available upon request at Goulburn-Murray Water (reception@gmwater.com.au) and AWS and the NWP system data are available upon request at National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology (iSupportNotification@bom.gov.au). Kushan C Perera was supported by an Australian Post-Graduate Award from the University of Melbourne.