Journal article
Scenario analysis for programmatic tuberculosis control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea
JM Trauer, JT Denholm, S Waseem, R Ragonnet, ES McBryde
American Journal of Epidemiology | OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC | Published : 2016
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv323
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around k..
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Funding Acknowledgements
This report was commissioned by the National Department of Health, Papua New Guinea, and approval for publication was given by Pascoe Kase, Secretary for Health. The work was funded by the aid program of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (known as the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) at the time of the research). J.M.T. has received support from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia for doctoral studies in tuberculosis. E.S.M. is the recipient of a National Health and Medical Research Council Career Development Fellowship.