Journal article

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction

Christopher M Baker, Ascelin Gordon, Michael Bode



Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowsto..

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University of Melbourne Researchers


Awarded by ARC

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions and by ARC Discovery Project DP150102472. C.B. is the recipient of a John Stocker Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Science and Industry Endowment Fund. M.B. was supported by DE130100572.