Probability of cyclone strike on specific regions of the Queensland coast, given current cyclone position and movement

Abstract

Tropical cyclones in the Queensland region generally travel away from the Queensland coast. The probability of offshore cyclones affecting selected Queensland coastal cities is calculated. This probability is much greater if the cyclone has a component of westward motion rather than eastward. If a cyclone is in a certain offshore position and has a component of motion eastwards, the probability of that cyclone ever affecting the chosen city in the lifetime of the storm is very low, in some cases negligible. This may give some forecast guidance beyond the typical forecast period of tropical cyclone movement.