PROJECTED INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF DEMENTIA CASES FOR 29 DEVELOPED-COUNTRIES - APPLICATION OF A NEW METHOD FOR MAKING PROJECTIONS

Abstract

A method is described for making projections of increases in dementia cases over a given base year. The method is based on a statistical model relating dementia prevalence to age that is derived from the results of all published prevalence studies. This method was applied to United Nations population projections for 29 developed countries to arrive at expected increases in number of dementia cases in each country for the period 1980 to 2025.