STOCK VARIATIONS AND CEREAL SUPPLY MODELS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

Abstract

Previous models of cereal production in the United Kingdom have not included variation in cereal stocks as an explanatory variable. This paper examines the case for including such a variable and then specifies and estimates a model adjusted to include the influence of stocks. Elasticities are then reviewed and some comments are made on the possible extent of the differences due to the inclusion of stocks and on some policy implications emerging from the revised model. MODÈLES DE VARIATIONS DES STOCKS ET DE L'OFFRE CÉRÉALIÈRE POUR LE ROYAUME‐UNI Les précédents modèles de production céréalière du Royaume‐Uni ne comprenaient pas de variations des stocks céréaliers utilisées comme une variable e..