Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium

Joelle Gergis; Raphael Neukom; Ailie JE Gallant; David J Karoly

Journal article

Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium

Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Ailie JE Gallant, David J Karoly

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC | Published : 2016

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1

Abstract

Multiproxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land-ocean region of Australasia (0°-50°S, 110°E-180°) covering 1000-2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar be..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

David Karoly Author Earth Sciences

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Grants

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Awarded by Swiss National Science Foundation

Awarded by Division Of Earth Sciences

Funding Acknowledgements

We acknowledge funding support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program, Australian Research Council Projects LP0990151, FF0668679, and DP1092945, Swiss National Science Foundation Grant PZ00P2_154802, and Past Global Changes. The authors thank John Chiang, David Frank, and numerous anonymous reviewers for their time and comments on this study. J.G. is very grateful for the support provided by M.B. during the course of this project.