Reducing disease burden in an influenza pandemic by targeted delivery of neuraminidase inhibitors: Mathematical models in the Australian context

Abstract

Background: Many nations maintain stockpiles of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antiviral agents for use in influenza pandemics to reduce transmission and mitigate the course of clinical infection. Pandemic preparedness plans include the use of these stockpiles to deliver proportionate responses, informed by emerging evidence of clinical impact. Recent uncertainty about the effectiveness of NAIs has prompted these nations to reconsider the role of NAIs in pandemic response, with implications for pandemic planning and for NAI stockpile size. Methods: We combined a dynamic model of influenza epidemiology with a model of the clinical care pathways in the Australian health care system to identify ..