Predicting Wolbachia invasion dynamics in Aedes aegypti populations using models of density-dependent demographic traits

Abstract

Background: Arbovirus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti can be reduced by the introduction and establishment of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia in wild populations of the vector. Wolbachia spreads by increasing the fitness of its hosts relative to uninfected mosquitoes. However, mosquito fitness is also strongly affected by population size through density-dependent competition for limited food resources. We do not understand how this natural variation in fitness affects symbiont spread, which limits our ability to design successful control strategies. Results: We develop a mathematical model to predict A. aegypti-Wolbachia dynamics that incorporates larval density-dependent var..