A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with Type 2 diabetes: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68)

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis. The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy. Methods. Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood..