Global cue inconsistency diminishes learning of cue validity

Abstract

In daily life, we make decisions that are associated with probabilistic outcomes (e.g., the chance of rain today). People search for and utilize information that validly predicts an outcome (i.e., we look for dark clouds to indicate the possibility of rain). In the current study (N = 107), we present a two-stage learning task that examines how participants learn and utilize predictive information within a probabilistic learning environment. In the first stage, participants select one of three cues that gives predictive information about the outcome of the second stage. Participants then use this information to predict the outcome in stage two, for which they receive feedback. Critically, onl..